Blair Faces Toughest Day of Political Career

Tony Blair could face a rebellion from within his own party on Tuesday afternoon as Britain's House of Commons debates whether to go to war against Saddam Hussein without the backing of the United Nations Security Council.

One senior cabinet minister, and two further ministers have already quit the British government and observers say up to 150 members of parliament from Blair's own Labour Party could vote against the government when a vote on military action is taken in the House of Commons late Tuesday.

Blair suffered the biggest blow of his political career on Monday as hopes for a diplomatic solution evaporated. After France said it would use its veto, the U.S., Britain and Spain withdrew their second U.N. resolution. Later, U.S. President George W. Bush delivered Saddam an ultimatum in a televised address to the American people, giving the Iraqi leader and his sons 48 hours to leave Iraq or face a military attack.

Three U.K. ministers resign

On Tuesday, Blair struggled to keep his government in line over Iraq after Robin Cook, the leader of the House of Commons, and Junior Health Minister Lord Philip Hunt resigned. John Denham, a mid-ranking British interior minister also resigned from office.

In his resignation letter, former Foreign Secretary Cook wrote: "In principle, I believe it is wrong to embark on military action without broad international support."

Cook received a standing ovation for the resignation speech he gave to a packed House of Commons on Monday evening. He said he believed British "interests are best protected not by unilateral action but by multilateral agreement and a world order governed by rules,” adding that the stalemate in the U.N. Security Council and the split in the European Union was a heavy price to pay in a war which had not yet begun.

"History will be astonished at the diplomatic miscalculations which led so quickly to the disintegration of that powerful coalition," Cook warned members of parliament.

Meanwhile, Junior Health Minister Hunt said in an interview on BBC Radio 4 he had “decided to resign from the government today because I don’t support the pre-emptive action which is going to be taken without broad international support or indeed the support of the British people.”

But Clare Short, Britain's International Development Secretary -- who last week called Blair’s behavior “reckless” and threatened to resign if the prime minister went to war without U.N. backing -- said she would stay in office. In a statement, she said that, given the current circumstances, she would now be voting with the government.

Blair may have to rely on opposition votes

British parliamentarians are to debate an emergency motion in the House of Commons on Tuesday afternoon. The motion states that Iraq has not complied fully with weapons inspectors and is in material breach of U.N. Resolution 1441. Therefore, the motion continues, the British government should “use all means necessary to ensure the disarmament of Iraq’s weapons of mass destruction.”

Blair opponents within his own party said on Tuesday morning they expected 150 Labour parliamentarians to vote against the government. Last month, 122 rebelled aginst Blair's hawkish stance in an previous Iraq vote.

However, a total of 165 must go against Blair before he is forced to rely on Conservative Party votes. The Conservatives' leader, Iain Duncan Smith, has already said he will back a war. It would take 245 votes to defeat Blair's motion in the House of Commons.

Yesterday, the British government's top lawyer, Attorney General Lord Goldsmith, said war without a second U.N. resolution would not break international law. Previous U.N. resolutions were sufficient to authorize the use of force against Iraq, he said.

Poll says worst may be over for Blair

With 45,000 British troops stationed in the Gulf awaiting the order to attack, Blair may take some comfort from a new opinion poll revealing that public support for a war against Iraq has risen slightly. Disapproval for war has fallen 8 points to 44 percent, while support has risen by nine points to 38 percent.

The ICM poll, published in the Guardian newspaper on Tuesday said the Iraq crisis has not affected Labour’s poll rating and suggests that Blair “might have gone through the worst and his determination to secure a second U.N. resolution, though unsuccessful, has impressed voters.”