Renewed troubles in Israel and Lebanon

"It was such a bright sunny morning..." wrote Lebanese journalist Habib Battah on Twitter, as the first Israeli shells smashed into southern Lebanon on Wednesday. This was Israel's answer to the earlier shelling of one of its military convoys by the Lebanese Hezbollah militant group in the Israeli-controlled Golan Heights, an attack which killed two Israeli soldiers and a UN peacekeeper.

The shelling was followed by hours of anxious waiting, with one question dominating the streets of Lebanon and social media: Is it, once again, war? The situation was strongly reminiscent of the 2006 Israeli-Lebanese conflict, which began when Hezbollah kidnapped two Israeli soldiers.

"Hezbollah has no right to jeopardize the fate of Lebanon," said Ibrahim, 27, sitting with his friends at a cafe in central Beirut on Thursday, the day after the attack. He was unwilling to speak favorably about the Shia militant group. "This attack puts the entire population of Lebanon at risk," added his friend, Jamil. "Don't we have enough problems, with more than 1 million Syrian refugees and battles with Islamists on the Syrian border?"

The young Lebanese men are only too familiar with their country's history of war with Israel - and they know how to react. But the state of the region today is significantly worse than it was in 2006.

"My mother called me yesterday from Kuwait, and asked me to book a plane ticket as soon as possible," said Rawand, another young man in the group. "The airport is always bombed first in a war, and then the coast is also sealed off. The only way out would be Syria. But that hasn't been an option for a long time now."

Praise and criticism

Following the border escalation, Lebanese politicians were divided over Hezbollah's provocation. There was much criticism, but also some praise. Faisal Karami, the former minister of youth and sports, called the strike a "decisive answer at the right time." The shelling of the Israeli convoy was in retaliation for an Israeli airstrike on January 18 that killed six Hezbollah fighters and an Iranian general in the Syrian-controlled part of the Golan Heights, near Quneitra.

In Dahiyeh, a southern predominantly Shia suburb of Beirut, the strike against Israel was celebrated with gun salvos. On Twitter, people sent congratulations to the militant group: "Today I am proud to be Lebanese. Thank you Hezbollah!", wrote one.

Hezbollah leader Sheikh Hassan Nasrallah spoke to the country on Friday, saying in a televised speech that the militant group did not want war but did not fear it, either. Given the tense mood in the country, Lebanese citizens greeted his words with mixed feelings.

'Israel needs to show strength - but we don't need war'

People in Israel also listened closely to Nasrallah's speech. Israeli media reported on Thursday that Hezbollah had sent a message to Israel via the UN peacekeeping force stationed in southern Lebanon. The main message: Hezbollah did not wish to escalate the situation any further, a message confirmed by Israeli Defense Minister Moshe Yaalon on Israeli radio. Since Wednesday's attack, the border area has once again become calm. But troops stationed in the area remain on high alert.

Israel, meanwhile, is mourning the two soldiers who were killed by anti-tank missiles as they were travelling with the apparently poorly secured military convoy near the Lebanese border. The soldiers were buried on Thursday. In Jerusalem, about two-and-a-half hours away by car, the latest developments bring to mind conflicting feelings. Here, too, parallels have been drawn to recent history.

"If you look at how the Second Lebanon War began in 2006, that was also a relatively minor incident," said Cain, a political science student. Resigned, he added: "And if this incident doesn't trigger a new war, then it just might be the next one."

Moshe Hendel, on the other hand, who just migrated to northern Israel from Australia with his family, says he isn't that worried. "People here generally don't let such things disturb their daily lives to a great extent," he said. "We need to show strength, and I think things will work out."

But his friend, Salman Werdicker, remained cautious. "It's bad enough that two soldiers lost their lives. Israel must show strength to protect its borders - but it doesn't mean we need to have a war like we did in Gaza."

Further escalation not ruled out

Israeli military experts and political analysts see things in a similar way. Most assume that neither Israel nor Hezbollah have any interest in further escalating the conflict. Nevertheless, it's not possible to completely exclude the chance that the situation in northern Israel could lead to a new war in the long run.

The increasing tensions weren't unexpected. Hezbollah and Iran both threatened retaliation after the Israeli airstrike on January 18, with its Hezbollah and Iranian casualties. The Israeli press had been speculating for days about how the other side would even the score. And, in fact, Hezbollah did say Wednesday's strike on the Israeli army patrol was in response to the earlier attack in Quneitra.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's first reaction on Wednesday had been to threaten Hezbollah with a harsh military response, saying that Israel would defend itself on all fronts. But on Thursday, he announced who he believed to be the true mastermind behind the Hezbollah attack.

"It is Iran that stands behind the attack on us yesterday from Lebanon," Netanyahu said at a memorial service marking the one-year anniversary of the death of former Prime Minister Ariel Sharon. "This is the same Iran that is trying to reach a deal now with world powers that will leave it with the capability of developing nuclear weapons, a deal which we vehemently oppose."

In mid-March, Israelis will go to the polls to elect a new government. Until then, the country may be facing troubled times.