Tony Blair to Resign Within the Next Year

After two days of furious speculation, British Labour leader Tony Blair confirmed that he will step down as prime minister within the next twelve months, handing over the mantle at 10 Downing Street to his deputy, finance minister Gordon Brown.

Blair however stopped short of giving a precise date for his departure. Supporters have suggested that the changeover will take place in May, which would mark the tenth anniversary of his election as prime minister, though his detractors within the Labour party predict that he could step down sooner. On Wednesday, in a symbolic move, eight junior ministers resigned from his cabinet, demanding his resignation immediately.

Power Struggle Within Labour Party

Press reports have hinted at an intense internal power struggle between the Chancellor of the Exchequer and Blair, though Brown maintains that the decision about when the prime minister goes is up to him. The divisive camps within the Labour Party have agreed that there would be "no deal" on a timetable for departure, but talks for an "orderly transition" would ensue.

Writing in the British tabloid The Sun, Brown made no mention of a feud and praised Blair's "courageous leadership" in fighting Islamic terrorism.

According to a poll in London's Daily Telegraph, 44 percent of all Britons say they would like to see Blair resign by the end of this month, while 58 percent say he should leave by the end of this year.

Popularity ratings declined due to support of Iraq War

Though Blair rode into office on a wave of popularity in 1997, his public ratings have dropped dramatically over the perception that he is an "American poodle" following his staunch support of the Iraq War, which is unpopular among Britons. More recently, Blair's opposition to a rapid cease-fire in Lebanon has been cited by commentators as the pivotal moment in hastening Blair's departure.

Brown has hardly addressed the Iraq issue, nor Lebanon in public, though he is perceived by his supporters as less inclined to further the "special relationship" between Britain and the United States. The finance minister is also more of a Euro-sceptic than Blair, and has spoken out against Britain joining the Euro-zone for the common single currency.

Support for Blair strong in U.S. and weak in Europe

Not surprisingly, support for the British prime minister remains strong in the United States. President Bush's spokesman Tony Snow, told the Daily Telegraph , "Don't count Tony Blair out. Tony and the president have a lot of work to do. He is still the Prime Minister of Great Britain, he's a valuable ally."

In Europe, public opinion favors Blair stepping down sooner rather than later. The Berliner Zeitung editorialized, "The former charismatic figure is being forced out of office as an unloved prime minister. He has been too subservient in backing America in the Iraq war; he has been too obstinate in blocking the path of up-and-coming party members, including that of a successor, and he has been too narcissistic in paying more attention to selling his policies than to their substance."

According to Spain's El Pais "Blair is dragging the Labour Party down with him. After being one of the most innovative leaders of the Left, he has now lost popularity due to his unconditional alignment with Bush in the Iraq War."

Concerns about being lame duck in office

The Austrian daily Der Standard urged Blair's immediate departure. "The best thing would be if he left the stage straight away without any encore."

Other editorials in both Britain and abroad, express concerns that by refusing to set a precise date of departure, the prime minister would become a lame duck, unable to lead Whitehall and that his authority on the world stage would be undermined.