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Sharhi: Kokarin shawo kan Iran kan yarjejeniyar nukiliya

June 12, 2019

Ministan Harkokin Wajen Jamus Heiko Maas a ziyarar da ya kai Iran ya je hannu Rabbana ya dawo ba tare da ya cimma komai ba. Hakar kasar Iran ba ta cimma ruwa ba a cewar Mathias von Hein na DW a sharhin da ya rubuta.

https://p.dw.com/p/3KByM
Bundesaußenminister Heiko Maas in Teheran
Ministan Harkokin Wajen Jamus Heiko Maas da Shugaban Iran Hassan Rouhani a TehranHoto: picture-alliance/AA/Iranian Presidency

Ba a dai sami ceto yarjejeniyar nukiliyar da aka kulla ba, ballantana rage halin zaman dar-dar da ake ciki a yankin. Ko dama can ba'a sanya buri mai yawa a tafiyar ba a cewar mai magana da yawun ministan harkokin na Jamus kasancewar wadda ta haddasa zaman dar-dar din wato Amirka ba da ita aka yi zaman ba.

Babbar manufar matsin lambar da Amirka ke yi ita ce karya lagon tattalin arzikin Iran. Sayar da manta a kasuwannin duniya ya sami nakasu, farashin kayayyaki a Iran sun yi tashin gwauron zabi yayin da darajar kudin kasar ta fadi kasa warwas. Matsin lamba na karuwa a cikin gida. Sakamakon hakan kuwa shi ne sannu a hankali Iran na kaiwa makura, tura ta fara kaiwa bango, ba za ta iya ci gaba da jure hakurin da ta yi a baya ba. A kan haka Tehran ke neman kwakkwarar madafa tare da taimako kan takunkumin da Amirka ta kakaba mata, in da hali ma a dauke mata su baki daya. Idan ba haka ba kuma Tehran ta yi barazanar cewa daga ranar 7 ga watan Yuli za ta bijire wa dukkan wasu alkawuran da ta yi a karkashin yarjejeniyar nukiliya, musamman ci gaba da habaka sinadarinta na Uranium fiye da matsayin da aka iyakance mata.

Iran | Außenminister Maas und Sarif auf Pressekonferezenz
Ministan Harkokin Wajen Jamus Heiko Maas da takwaransa Mohammad Javad Zarif na IranHoto: Getty Images/AFP/A. Kenare

Sai dai Heiko Maas bai iya gabatar da wani abu ba, fiye da nanata shirin musaya na Tarayyar Turai INSTEX wanda aka samar a watan Janairu domin kewaye takunkumin hada-hadar kudade na Amirka. Kawo yanzu dai babu wata harka ko da guda daya da aka gudanar karkashin shirin na INSTEX. Duk da cewa kasashen Turai sun jaddada kudirinsu ga yarjejeniyar nukiliyar da aka cimma saboda wasu dalilai kwarara. Sai dai kuma a duk yayin da suka yi kokarin farfado da yarjejeniyar sabanin muradun gwamnatin Amirka, sai su watsar. Ana dai iya cewa ba za su iya cika alkawarin cinikayya da tattalin arziki ba yadda ita kuma Iran din a nata bangaren za ta yi watsi da shirinta na kera makamin nukiliya. Babban abin dubawa shi ne fargabar shiga takun saka da hukumomin kudi na Amirka musamman bankuna ko kuma kamfanoni da kasashen Turai suka zuba jari a cikinsu.

Bugu da kari, lamarin ya kasance mai sarkakiya saboda Washington ba ta nuna alamun amincewa da tafarkin da Iran take kai ba. Shin sauyin gwamnati za ta aiwatar kamar yadda mai bai wa shugaban kasar shawara kan tsaro John Bolton ya bayar? ko kuwa kokarin cimma yarjejeniya mai armashi da Shugaba Trump yake so. Idan kuwa tattaunawa za a yi kamar yadda Trump da sakatarensa na harkokin waje Mike Pompeo suka ce, to me ya kawo batun tsaurara takunkumi? A kowane hali dai tambayar ita ce me zai sa Tehran ta amince da sabbin alkawura daga fadar White House alhali Amirkar ba ta shirya martaba yarjejeniyar da aka cimma da ita a baya ba?.

U.S. Präsident Donald Trump
Shugaban Amirka, Donald TrumpHoto: Getty Images/S. Rousseau

Bayan haka duk da cewa an jibge sojojin kundunbala da jiragen yaki a yankin Tekun Fasha, yana da muhimmanci jami'an diflomasiyya su ma su bi sahu. Abin da lamarin ke nunawa a yanzu dai yana da matukar hadari. Ko da yake babu wani bangare da ke bukatar yaki, in banda watakila John Bolton. Akwai bukatar yin hattara domin dukkan wani kuskure ka iya haifar da babban bala'i. Kuma dukkan wata kafar tattaunawa tana da amfani. Musamman idan Washington da Riyadh suka shigo ciki. Kamar yadda Firaministan Japan Shinzo Abe zai je Tehran a gobe Laraba da yawun Trump ko kuma ziyarar da yarima mai jiran gado na kasar Hadaddiyar Daular Larabawa Mohammed bin Zayed zai kawo ranar Laraba a birnin Berlin.

A karshe dai babu alamar za a yi tattaunawa ta kai tsaye tsakanin Tehran da Washington. Daukacin kasashen duniya dai na da sha'awar ganin wannan tattaunawa kuma da ya kamata a ce Maas ya jaddada hakan a Tehran. To amma yayin da igiyar takunkumi ke reto a wuyan Iran zai yi matukar wuya ta amince ta zauna a teburin shawara.